Tucson monthly climate reports for 2024 (2024)

The February outlook for Tucson, issued on January 31st by the Climate Prediction Center, favored above-normal total precipitation amounts (52% above vs 15% below) and favored near-normal monthly mean temperatures (36% near Vs 33% for both above and below). The month was split into two periods, a wet first 11 days then a mostly dry and warm remainder of the month.

The first 11 days of the month were active as several winter storms moved across the area with rainfall occurring across the metro areas every day except for on the 4th and 5th. A thunderstorm on the 2nd produced brief heavy rain and pea-sized hail. On the 6th, strong gusty winds occurred in advance of another winter storm. The airport recorded a peak gust of 59 mph which is the highest February gust in the past 50 years. The coldest storm of the month impacted the area on the 10th with widespread valley rain and a little snow, mainly across the southeast portion of the metro area including Vail. The high temperature on the 10th of 48° was the 4th coldest February high this century.

The monthly average temperature of 57.1° is 0.9° above normal and ranks as the 26th warmest February on record. Temperature extremes for the month ranged from a high of 86° on the 25th to a low of 35° on the 12th. This is the 26th February on record in which the official site didn't record a low temperature of 32° or colder. The last February that this occurred was in 2021. The high & low temperatures of 76° & 61° on the 26th have occurred together only once before since 1894, on May 3, 1915.

A strong El Niño was forecast to peak during the 2023-24 Winter season. El Niño typically brings an increased chance of wetter than normal conditions during the Winter months, December, January, and February. However, there was no model consensus to swing the chances of a wetter-than-normal winter for Tucson. Based on that assessment the temperature and precipitation outlook for Tucson, issued on November 17th by the Climate Prediction Center, called for the following:

• a 33% chance that the seasonal mean temperatures will be below normal
• a 33% chance that the seasonal mean temperatures will be above normal
• a 33% chance that the seasonal total precipitation will be below normal
• a 33% chance that the seasonal total precipitation will be above normal

There were several active periods this past winter that helped shape the season. Those active periods were 1) several days before Christmas; 2) mid-January; and 3) the first 10 days of February. The numerous winter storms that moved across the area brought much-needed precipitation in the form of valley rain and mountain snow. This helped improve drought conditions across the metro area from severe classification at the start of winter to moderate classification at the end of winter.

The seasonal average temperature of 55.5° is 1.2° above normal and goes into the record books as the 11th warmest on record, tied with Winter 1995-96 & Winter 2008-09. Temperature extremes ranged from a high of 86° on February 25th to a low of 28° on January 9th. Four days recorded freezing low temperatures at the airport, which all occurred in January. This is the third Winter on record in which all of the 32° or colder low-temperature days occurred in January. The other Winters were 1940-41 and 1962-63. This is also the 8th Winter season on record that recorded less than 5 days with lows of 32° or colder.

Precipitation across the metro area, using several sources like rainlog.org, the Pima County Regional Flood Control District gages, and CoCoRaHS, ranged widely from 3.25" to 6.00" with isolated spots up to 8". The Tucson International Airport, which is the official recording location in Tucson, recorded 4.63" which is nearly two inches above normal and ranks as the 15th wettest Winter season on record. The airport set three daily rainfall records (1.25" on December 22nd; 0.81" on January 21st and 0.60" on January 23rd). The last Winter season to record three or more daily rainfall records was Winter 1997-98 (3).

The yearly mean temperature of 54.9° which is normal and ranks as the 27th warmest January/February period on record.

Precipitation across the metro area during the first two months of the year has ranged widely from 2.25" to 4.50" with isolated spots up to 5.50". The Tucson International Airport, the official recording location in Tucson, has recorded 3.16" which is almost an inch and a half above normal and ranks as the 14th wettest January/February period on record. The water year rainfall (October 1 to February 29) total of 5.10" ranks as the 35th wettest first five months of the water year on record.

The March outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for Tucson favors below-normal monthly mean temperatures (45% belowvs 22% above) and equal chances for either below, near, or above-normal total precipitation amounts.

The Spring season outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for Tucson slightly favors below-normal total seasonal precipitation amounts (34% belowvs 33% above) and equal chances for either below, near, or above-normal seasonal mean temperatures.